AI Scenario Explorer
Configure parameters to explore different AI development scenarios starting from January 1st, 2027.
AI Development Parameters
Coding Time Horizon Doubling RateHow long it takes for AI coding time horizon to double
Time Horizon for Automated Coder (AC)Coding time horizon required to achieve Automated Coder capabilities
Difficulty Scaling per DoublingHow much easier or harder each subsequent time horizon doubling becomes
Top to Median Researcher Value RatioHow much more valuable are top researchers compared to median ones per experiment
AI Research Taste Improvement SpeedHow quickly AIs improve at research taste and direction-setting (in standard deviations)
AI Company Leaderboard
Specify which companies lead in AI capabilities. Leave positions unspecified if unknown.
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Parameter values based on AI Futures Model